Well so far the DOW futures have again showed that they cannot...

Well so far the DOW futures have again showed that they cannot be trusted. We have an expectation here in OZ that the US market must fall to levels in the low 7000 before the US market bottoms out but I believe that we will not get what we want. It might happen in the future over time but by then so long as the news doesn't get much worse time will make investors feel more confident to get back in. So in effect we could have sideways trading instead of a big 1000 point drop on the DOW that ends it all. There is a point where the blue chips stocks simply will not be sold any lower than the current holders will accept. That must be close or we are already here. In OZ we have had the benefit of five years of going long commodities and short the US dollar and it would seem to me that the current reversal of this game puts us in a worse position than the US. In addition we have been too late to cut rates and too late to stimulate the economy IMO. We also have house prices that have not yet fallen. So when an investor in the world wants to put their money somewhere we may actually be the higher risk market fundamentally at this stage of our cycle. I would appreciate any comments on this. So my prediction for the DOW tonight is a fall of less than five percent which is what our market factured in at its close and unfortunately not the 10% we all would like to see.