A: To obtain access to the pit floor to initially conduct resource upgrade drilling to support the v2.2 BFS. This was clearly stated in the recent update and referenced by moi in an earlier post. (The larger v2.2 scenario requires more drilling data to get off the ground. Less so for the smaller v1.1, which can do additional drilling during production.)
Delving a little deeper, if we look at the most recent v1.1 FTM timeline (still on the POS home web page and unchanged since the 05/04/22 update) we can see a time allocation for the pit dewatering spanning ~6 months (i.e. mid-Q3, 2022 to mid-Q1, 2023) before the open pit mining development begins (from mid-Q1, onwards). Remember, this Gannt chart relates to the v.1.1 FTM strat only.
(1.1Mtpa FTM indicative timeline still on POS home web page. Unchanged since the 05/04/22 update.)
This raises the obvious question: didn't PH say in the recent update that the pit dewatering is now expected to be completed during Nov, 2022? Yep. But that's only three-ish months from commencement dewatering (in Q3), not the slated six months? Yep. Why the difference (sooner)? My interpretation: Dewatering the pit has been fast-track using greater pumping capacity. By halving the dewatering time it opens a three-month window (i.e. mid-Q4, 2022 to mid-Q1, 2023) for the v.2.2 resource drilling to occur on the pit floor without getting in the way of any open pit mining development relating to the v.1.1 scenario (i.e. slated to commence from mid-Q1, 2023, per above).
Ok, but how does all this relate to whether a FID will occur around the v1.1 BFS or whether it will be deferred until the v2.2 BFS is done in H1 next year? It doesn't. That's open question.
The purpose of this post was to show one punter's interpretation of: 1) How the current accelerated open pit dewatering works gives rise to presenting a dry (drillable) pit floor three months earlier than previously stated (i.e. before v2.2 was an option); and 2) How the v2.2 resource drilling on the pit floor can occur without interfering with the slated v1.1 open pit mine development timing of works. (That said, the current v1.1 timeline is based on an Sep, 2022 FID, which we all know isn't going to happen. Even if v1.1 FID occurs later this quarter all the timings related to it will get bumped by at least the duration of that deferral. Notwithstanding this, I think the point is made).
If there's another FID deferral (I'm leaning that way), it will most certainly be in favour of waiting until the v2.2 BFS is done mid-next year (NSS). After all, the decision on whether (or not) to include the talc ore into the mix (i.e. v1.1 vs. v2.2) is material on multiple levels -- not least of which the open pit mine plan.
All in all, I think most rational punters would agree that, sans the much vaulted and hoped-for 'Peppermint Grove' results around GS u/g drilling last year, BS is going to be a low-grade swing project. Well, it'll start off that way, at least.
PS. Is TB still banging on about 'secret' works? If so, that's hilarious. He was hyperactively calling (posting) that 'secret' dewatering works had begun back in Q4 last year. It's not difficult to verify.
(20min delay)