Blackdekka’s daily rant, page-5

Transhipping Update for 17 July
Love your work, stonedfish.

Min Res did 4 transhipments or 29m t pa on 17 July. The historical rates are below, 31.1 m t pa since June 1, and 27.1 m t pa for July so far.It feels like its back to normal at Onslow with the rate at 32.3 m t pa over the last week.

The other main data isIron ore prices continue to rise another 1%, August at 101.95.

With Iron ore at 101.95, and the Aus US $ decreasing .6494, the Onslow margin per tonne for Min Res is$37.5 !!!!, up from the alreadyt high $36.5 per tonne yesterday, a combination of both iron ore price rise and Aus $ decrease.

Mins will generate $19.40 per share of free cash over the next 3 years at spot rates. How good is that!

SGX TSI Iron Ore 62% Prices and SGX TSI Iron Ore 62% Futures Prices - Barchart.com

The iron ore miners joined the rally last night with BHP up 2% in the US and closed 2% above the Australian equivalent.

Lithium miners also rallied strongly overnight with Abelmarle up 7.5% and Lithium Americas up 9.5%

Aus futures are up 0.45%.

Shorts are at 14.04% on 11 July, which is excellent because i expect they will really enjoy today.

Given the above data, my trading model has MINs opening at $29.03.

I've got no idea where MINs actually trades today; yesterday the ridiculous short attack held it irrationally at low 27s for most of the day until mid afternoon, and only then did it rise to the levels i expected and my model predicted.
We may get the same today, so my view is MINs will be good buying low $28s or less.

My feel is also as with other days the good buying may be early in the day and the shorts won't want to hold into the weekend, so we may get another late friday afternoon rally.

I'm buying because all the fundamental data: iron prices, shipping rates etc are good for Mins, and on current spot rates MIns generates $19.40 of free cash flow over the next 3 years, and trades on price to free cash flow multiples of 4.2 and 3.6 in FY 26 and FY 27. You're unlikely to go wrong long term buying into that!

Enjoy the day.

	MinRes Onslow estimated EBITDA per tonne Aus $ (mining + mining services)						$37.5
	Date since	Total days	Rate shipped per day tonnes	Total transhipper unloads	Total transhipped (tonnes million)	Rate per year(million tonnes)	Free cash flowFY 26 Onslow(FOB AUD 58), $ m	% of nameplate
	05-May-25	75	76533	287	5.74	28.0	$1,048	80%
	01-Jun-25	47	85106	200	4.26	31.1	$1,166	89%
	01-Jul-25	17	74118	63	1.26	27.1	$1,015	77%
	Nameplate		95825			35.0	$1,313	100%
	Free cash flow (FCF) estimates for entire business at nameplate capacity (35 m t pa)
		Fy 26	Fy 27	Fy 28	Mkt cap $ m	Share price
	FCF $ m	1298	1516	955	5395	$27.75
	Price/FCF	4.2	3.6	5.6
			Cumulative		FCF % of mkt cap (Fy 26 to 28)
	FCF per share	$6.68	$14.47	$ 19.39	70%
	Unloads by Transhipper since 5 May 2025					Iron Ore price US$
	Airlie	Coolibah	Montebello	Rosily	Peak	$101.95
	64	72	61	71	18.5	Aud Usd
						0.649