BlackRock says coal is dead as it eyes renewable power splurge, page-60

Hi @ThinkMillions I don't think coal is dead, just over time it looks like less of it will be required. - The old supply and demand story.

The lowest cost production appears to be mines in South Africa at around $20 per tonne. LINK

From what I can see price per tonne varies around the $40 mark. LINK

Its probably not far from the current mark up % wise that Galaxy achieves from the concentrate that it ships from Mt Cattlin though under vertical integration and also the supply and demand that margin can increase substantially.

An investment in each commodity would need to be weighed on profitability, but in the case of coal with some big consumers like China and India changing tact it appears to be the more risky of the two to be in.

The main reason I chose lithium as my investment vehicle is because it cannot be substituted out, particularly in a good quality electric vehicle as its high power low weight characteristics lead to it being the best suited despite various alternatives being touted as viable. Lithium is in various devices such as phones and laptops, tablets and home energy storage which is another market that is growing substantially. There isn't coal in any of them other than the possibility that it is used to charged the devices, but that won't last for long.

I have been reading that various financial institutions are shaky in considering investment into any new coal projects as the return as BlackRock points indicates may not be there by the end of this decade.. Meanwhile for me lithium will and continues to grow substantially.

One recent article I read places lithium demand at 1.2 to 1.5 million tonnes by 2035. Currently I understand global production is somewhere around 200,000 tonnes, so we are looking at 7.5x growth over the next 12 years and there hasn't been many lithium projects come online of late.

Inevitably lithium supply will meet demand and it will be the lowest cost projects that survive. Many if which havent even been found. I look at something like coal as an example of what might occur to the various companies that fail to have low cost of production projects, there is nothing different.. It's just something that someone wants to buy and sell..

It's no different to oil either.. As oil prices lower, some companies/country's have debt that in time will destroy them entirely.. This is something I have learnt about over time of investing also, and it was a little the hard way by being in Galaxy which appeared to be going quite well but ended up in a bind that required Jiangsu to be sold just to save our ass.

Again, it's that point which should be taken into account when making an investment in any project, and it is again probably one of the reasons a majority of the financiers are baulking at laying down any investment into coal projects anymore as the demand will inevitably fade away and the supply will only reduce based on companies falling away.

Finishing on a positive note @ThinkMillions I hope you are invested in one of the lowest cost coal producers and that their debt levels can be managed despite the possibility of what most see as inevitable. Though, to me you sound like a switched on investor that will march to the beat of your own drum fairly similar to me, in which case when the time comes you will already be invested elsewhere and not needing to worry so much about any of the above.