British-US relationship may change as a result of Blair's weak win.
By Sophie Arie | Correspondent of csmonitor.com
LONDON — Although British Prime Minister Tony Blair won reelection to an historic third term, he may find it harder now to chart his own course in his relationship with the United States.
With a majority of 161 seats in parliament until Thursday, the Labour leader - George W. Bush's closest international ally in Iraq - now faces four years of running Britain with only 66 seats more than his opponents. It is a safe majority, as long as Labour MPs are happy to toe the line. In recent months, about 50 rebel Labour MPs have repeatedly voted against their own party's line.
"From now on, he (Blair) is on a leash," said Patrick Dunleavy, professor of political science and public policy at the London School of Economics."He will be constrained in anything he says, internationally and domestically."
"His authority is much reduced," said John Curtis, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde.
Mr. Blair appears to have lost much of the public's trust, many of whom believe he led them into war in Iraq on the basis of a lie –that Saddam Hussein wielded weapons of mass destruction. But many say he remains the individual with the personal charisma to lead the country. Conservative leader Michael Howard announced he would resign in due course, recognizing that to defeat Labour in the next election, the Conservative party needs to find another leader.
Blair has vowed he will not run for another term. But that may not be enough for a disenchanted British public. Polls show that about half of voters do not even want him to serve the full term he has just begun.
"If I was Tony Blair right now, I'd be thinking 'how can I salvage my reputation in history?" says Prof. Dunleavy. "The best thing now is for Blair to pave the way for a smooth transition to a new Labour Party leader in the next couple of years. If he clings on to the bitter end now, we'll be living with 'unreality politics'."
Blair's less cuddly, more intellectual economy chief Gordon Brown is widely seen as Blair's logical successor. Many would like to see him take the reins as soon as next year.
"Under Brown, in every way, Britain would be more cautious," says Dunleavy. He expects Brown to take the helm sometime in the next four years.
"There is unlikely to be a huge change of British policy towards the US," should Brown become prime minister, Dunleavy continues. "But if you think Britain plays a prominent role explaining US policy to Europe, that won't be happening any more."
If Brown becomes prime minister, he would not be likely to depart dramatically from Blair's alliance with the US. But he is, as one observer noted, a more 'cautious, intellectually rigorous, prickly' character. On a personal level, the relationship between the US and this post-Blair British leader is unlikely to be as close.
"I can't see him getting on terribly well with Bush. It doesn't look inherently like a marriage made in heaven," said Gillian Peele, politics lecturer at Oxford University. "But the strangest bedfellows come together. I am sure Brown would make sure he found a way to make it work."
Gordon Brown is known to be a great America-phile, having spent personal time in the US and forged strong personal and working connections with US policy makers including Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan and Harvard University president Lawrence Summers.
But some, including Peele, believe Blair may not hand over party leadership until the last year of this term. But, though he has won an historic victory – becoming the first Labour leader to win a third consecutive term – his victory is overshadowed by the battering his party took, now running the country with the smallest share of the vote in modern history.
With final results still to come in, exit polls showed Labour only scraped 37 percent of the vote, compared to the Conservatives 33 percent, and the Liberal Democrats 22.7 percent.
Since Labour erupted onto the political stage in 1997 with 43 percent of the vote, Blair has been accused of being arrogant and not listening to the public or even to members of his own party, including the several dozen who have started rebelling against government policy. As subdued Labour party leaders absorbed the reality of their weakened mandate, each acknowledged it was time to 'listen and learn' from the British public.
While the Conservative Party - Labour's chief rival - made only slight gains, the Liberal Democrats jumped from 19 percent of the vote four years earlier to over 22 percent. The Conservative party, despite falling short of expectations, announced that after eight years out in the cold, it was officially 'back in business'. Liberal Democreat leader, Charles Kennedy, hailed the result as 'the beginning of an era of three-party politics'.
