blair wins - but loses, page-24

Hi Yak,

Out of 645 seats declared (1 in doubt), LABOUR has 356 (down 47, from 403, with 35.2% of the vote), the CONSERVATIVES have 197 (up 33, from 164, with 32.3% of the vote), and the LIBERAL DEMOCRATS have 62 (up 11, from 51, with 22% of the vote). OTHERS have 30 (up 3, from 27, with 10.5% of the vote).

LABOUR with 35.2% of the vote scored 55% of the seats.

The CONSERVATIVES, with 32.3% of the vote scored 30.5% of the seats, the LIBERAL DEMOCRATS scored 9.6% of the seats with 22% of the vote, and OTHERS, 4.7% of the seats with 10.5% of the vote.

As for gerrymanders, Beetljus is quite right. A gerrymander cannot be determined by weight of seats won alone. A true gerrymander is determined by reference to the vote weighting applicable to each seat, thereby casting into doubt the core principle of "one vote, one value".

Nationwide, there were 646 seats to be won, based on an electorate of ~44M voters. The theoretical average seat size was 68,500.

Significant nationwide discrepancies, however, were evident from the results. For example:
1.
LONDON:
74 Seats.
Average size 67.7K.
Outcome = LAB (44), CON (21), LD (8).
Seats ranged in size from Beckenham (Conservative, with 75K) to Walthamstow (Labour, with 63K), to Battersea (Labour @40.4%, Conservatives @40%, with 70K), to Westham (Labour, with 62K).
2.
NORTH EAST:
30 Seats.
Average size 64K.
Outcome = LAB (28), CON (1), LD (1).
3.
EASTERN:
56 Seats.
Average size 74.4k.
Outcome = LAB (13), CON (40), LD (13).
4.
SOUTH EAST:
83 Seats.
Average size 73.1K.
Outcome = LAB (19), CON (58), LD (6).
5.
NORTH WEST:
76 Seats.
Average size 68K.
Outcome = LAB (61), CON (9), LD (6).
6.
SOUTH WEST:
51 Seats.
Average size 75.1K.
Outcome = LAB (13), CON (22), LD (16).
7.
EAST MIDLANDS:
44 Seats.
Average size 73.1K.
Outcome = LAB (25), CON (18), LD (1).
8.
WEST MIDLANDS:
59 Seats.
Average size 66.1K.
Outcome = LAB (39), CON (15), LD (3).
9.
YORKS & HUMBER:
56 Seats.
Average size 66.9K.
Outcome = LAB (44), CON (9), LD (3).
10.
WALES:
40 Seats.
Average size 55.8K.
Outcome = LAB (29), CON (3), LD (4), OTHER (4).
11.
SCOTLAND:
59 Seats.
Average size 65.3K.
Outcome = LAB (41), CON (1), LD (11), SNP (6).
12.
NORTHERN IRELAND:
18 Seats.
Average size 63.8K.

LABOUR STRONGHOLDS (REGIONS):
LONDON:
74 Seats - 67.7K (-0.8K).
44/29 split
NORTH EAST:
30 Seats - 64K (-4.5K).
28/2 split.
NORTH WEST:
76 Seats - 68K (-0.5K).
61/15 split.
EAST MIDLANDS:
44 Seats - 73.1K (+4.6K).
25/19 split.
WEST MIDLANDS:
59 Seats - 66.1K (-2.4K).
39/18 split.
YORKS & HUMBER:
56 Seats - 66.9K (-1.6K).
44/12 split.
WALES:
40 Seats - 55.8K (-12.7K).
29/7 split (Oth=4).
SCOTLAND:
59 Seats - 65.3K (-3.2K).
41/12 split (Oth=6).

CONSERVATIVE /DEMOCRAT STRONGHOLDS (REGIONS):
EASTERN:
56 Seats - 74.4k (+5.9K).
43/3 split.
SOUTH EAST:
83 Seats - 73.1K (+4.6K).
64/19 split.
SOUTH WEST:
51 Seats - 75.1K (+6.6K).
38/13 split.
EAST MIDLANDS:
44 Seats - 73.1K (+4.6K).
19/25 split.

Says it all, really.

All CONS/LD strongholds had above average electorate sizes, whilst 7 of 8 LAB strongholds had below average electorate sizes.

Now, that's a gerrymander in full force and effect.