This is from Wood Mackenzie. Let's hope their on the money over the next 2 to 3 years.
Commodity Market Update
Global nickel long-term outlook Q2 2015
After a poor first quarter, technical influences coinciding with a strike at Cerro Matoso in late April pushed nickel prices up to US$14,412/t (US$6.54/lb) on 6 May. However, this rebound was short-lived. LME stocks rose considerably during May and the lack of clarity behind that rise merely added to the concern over real levels of demand, and prices decreased.
The fundamental picture for nickel has not changed since our prior LTO but the disappointing price levels so far in 2015 forced us to cut our price forecasts by nearly US$1/lb in April. Our forecast average nickel price for 2015 now stands at US$14,246/t (US$6.46/lb). Our outlook for 2016 and 2017 has prices rising steadily under several supportive conditions. By the end of 2017 the cumulative deficit will have increased to around 220kt, leaving the forecast average nickel price for that year at US$25,660/t (US$11.60/lb). Even allowing for some nickel production from Indonesian NPI projects from 2017, the market could remain short of nickel, with a potential cumulative deficit of 470kt by 2020. Beyond then, the world will continue to need nickel from new developments in order to meet forecast demand and maintain a reasonable market balance over the long term. We anticipate that half of this total long-term requirement will originate from Chinese/Indonesian endeavours, with the rest coming from the "West". These "western" projects will need a long term average nickel price of $25,500-26,000/t (US$11.50-12.00/lb, real) in order to incentivise their development.
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