Am trying to muster my thoughts through a slight haze of 12 year old malt from last night - my apologies therefore if this post wanders a bit!
Points to remember - no broker can accept those sort of orders that IRN experienced last night - we are talking "losing your broking licence" type of ramifications. This would apply to any normal client whether they are based onshore or offshore. However the order could have been input by an online client who doesn't care about the possible actions that the ASX could take - probably means that he is offshore. If that is the case then I would be surprised if he had an online account facility.
Therefore, the probability must be that it is a Corporate buyer who has intentions for the company. Again, if that is correct then you have to assume that we are talking a full takeover (my prefered outcome from a tax perspective) rather than a sale of their stake in SMI. It is also worth noting that the minute Xstrata buys any (and I do mean "any") extra shares they would go over the 20% threshhold and would have to launch a full bid. However, what I don't know is whether they get any grace period - say until the trade settles - before they need to come out into the open.
One other point of note is that management has far more "skin" in this game than immediately meets the eye - Laufman and his team would be seriously well rewarded financially if they can pull this off. Last time that I spoke to my contact there he was seriously wondering what he was going to be doing come the New Year!
Robbo
IRN Price at posting:
86.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
