I've been out waiting for an opening to buy in and it's been interesting because I haven't found a good one! Admittedly I missed the big drop in 12 June but didn't trust the market to buy in that day. In my tracking I find in the entire last month since I sold there are only ever 1 or 2 days red down then some "positive" market intervention news from USA and price is back up.
That's primarily why I haven't posted anything. Because we're in like a holding pattern idling around the same price. So anything we do in analysis tends to get repetitive because we're not really going anywhere just circling. The price now has levelled around 3.6-3.8 and idling. (notice my red line drawn across and how it hits multiple highs/lows since start of June)
I am still very focused on the USA and global events. lot of negative action and consequences slowly starting to take hold. There's talk of gold increasing from $1700 to $3000 this year but that's a far away off.
The virus/lockdown was just the beginning. The business collapses and job losses are happening now (Qantas 6000 jobs this week). That is what is going to cause the second wave possible crash but so far it's being delayed by all the government bailouts.
Personal opinion though over past month I think the interventions are having LESS effect in boosting shareholders attitudes. You don't see the massive spikes anymore 10 20% it's all just 1-2% a day up then a day down. But you're seeing more of these down days now and so it feels overall like the trend is becoming negative.
Also the longer prices/market continue idling around a certain price the more risk of a drop perhaps? Measurements like "50/100 day MA" moving averages catch up with the share price and can trigger selloffs. Currently Borals 50 days moving average is almost equal share price & the 100 day is catching up. On it's on this doesn't mean much more than that the price of the stock is becoming relatively stable. But the potentially interpreted effect common among shareholders is that if the price isn't increasing long term, it should be soldoff.
Aside from that I notice volumes are dropping now too on Boral. From 20-30m/day weeks we are now back to 8-10ish. Everyone has different opinions on that but I think it can indicate people are getting out / holding. This also tells me the Seven Group & any other major buyers have finished buying for now (until price hits a new low perhaps).
So perhaps now we can say we are back into the 2 months ago pattern / predictable cycle. No major outside intervention buying/selling and just the market feelings / situation & regular buyers/sellers.
Today as per usual looks like we're on the up again after the usual 2-3 day down. I would expect more rises Monday Tuesday before any drop again.
As we saw last month with the jump from $2.5 to $3.5 this sort of loop can't last forever. The price has to pick a direction and go and what you see right now is just a level of uncertainty of which way is the right way. I think within the next month we will see the next big push.
One thing I've learned this year is 2020 signals a new generation of trading. The old way of thinking and just looking at metrics doesn't work anymore because we have a lot of investors who are investing like it's a game and thinking the market only goes up LOL. This changes all the rules and so when that happens all we can do is take a best guess and see what happens.
One last note to remember. As is clear by now the markets all globally tend to follow USA. So if you want to look at USA's situation I would say it is only getting worse. The bankruptcies are increasing, the stimulus debates are running & the economy is crashing. Virus cases are increasing dramatically and also very very important. June july is summer in North Hemisphere / America... They haven't even had winter yet which as we know is the season everyone gets SICK. What number of cases of virus do you expect then and what level of economic destruction will come then is really hard to say but it will come.
When this all happens you would logically (but that's the irony nothing is logical now) expect a major drop in markets. Everyone here in Australia who thinks our shares don't get hit by that are being too optimistic.
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