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@Happ Its a quiet Friday arvo during school holidays and I have not much better to do than post here.
I am a massive fan of WBT and was a top 10 shareholder in 2020. I sold my holding from $5-$7 on the silly( but appreciated) rally that was being pushed by funds driving it into the asx200. This was always going to result in a major correction and extreme shorting as the lack of revenues and distance to profitability was too long to warrant being in the asx200. FWIW, I am a bigger fan of BLG, simple because how close they are to commercialization and profitability. Here is my comparisons. Love to hear from others who held both on their thoughts
(1) Management: WBT board and CEO, get a 9/10 in terms of experience and credentials. BLG board 6.0 and 8.5/10 CEO.
(2) Moat: Both get 9/10 here as both have products that have taken decades to develop and only a handful of competitors.
(3) Revenues: WBT addressable market is probably 10X that of BLG, but both are enormous. 10/10 and 8/10 respectively.
(4) Valuation: WBT high in val was $1.7B, BLG around $120m. Both are sitting very cheap on risk reward basis IMO. 8/10 on risk reward for both.
(5) Timing: WBT royalties and Fab applications each take 12-24 months. BLG has a vertical integrated self owned fab, ready for production and commercialization. In fact, BLG revenue in the Sept quarter 4C will show a 200% jump based on the recent European fab $1.93m payment. WBT 4/10, BLG 9/10.
(6) Vindication: WBT has two fabs currently either promoting Reram or quantifying it. Other are expected soon. BLG contract with US DoD is for 5 years, comes with other projects and collaborations within the Hub. Further, they already have paying customers ( smallish ) in a wide range of industries, including Quantum computing. WBT 6/10, BLG 9.5/10.
Based on the above I see the the shorter risk reward in favour of BLG. I can easily see a >10X to $650m, but at 10x on WBT to $2.7B is a long way off.
Just my opinion... Anyone else bored and care to comment!!
