BLG - General Discussion, page-652

Why is $66m a joke MC ?.. on what basis do you make this assessment ?
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I think $66m is about right, possibly a tad over valued actually. Largely representing the replacement cost of the facility and staff (for a new entrant to replicate this business) plus a little for perceived upside. Note that while, the staff is not huge, they will all be paid fairly well (engineers/scientists/specialist tech) to that is a bit of a liability until decent revenue comes in... Whilst the prospects are good, without substantial revenue the facility and staff are pointless, hence of no value (we need return on equity). Remember also that the facility, equipment, BLG's IP/technology are all depreciating, becoming obsolete over time so we must have decent revenue to plow back into R&D to stay in the game and also to pay divvy's to SH's. Some here have postulated a Disallowed to $650m. This is way too optimistic. Right now there nothing to re-rate this SP until if/when some contract is forthcoming from EpinovaTech which looks the most likely at this point. Note though that if EpinovaTech are just organising the buyout of IP now (which will likely have been required by their finance providers) then they are probably at least another 6 months from placing any material contracts with BLG. We also cannot rule out the possibility that they will shop this IP around to see if there is another fab facility (in europe) that can make the wafers for them. Still plenty of risk. Anyhow, let's hope it pans out well for BLG and us shareholders in the next year or so.