blinding out

Looking at the 5 years chart it is pretty obvious that

a) meanwhile we are light years away from the 200 days average

b) the break of the A$ 1.00 level was an important "psychological" mark and the break generated accelerated selling pressure

c) the effect of the high-grade hits 12 months ago, subsequent ressources upgrade at Kitumba and scoping study plus positive broker reports just evaporated within weeks.

d) the SP is more or less again on the 5 years upward trend (unbelievable but true).

Top 10 shareholders are holding more the 50 % of the shares. I guess that top 20 to top 30 very probably are holding 60-65 % of the share. That means that the free float is rather limited. I assume that nobody from the top holders have sold, therefore my guess is, that a lot of peopole that have bought into the 2012 "after-high-grade-hit" hype and have paid more then A$ 1 for a share have just lost their nerves and started to limit their losses (maybe after having averaged down one or more times). Maybe the one or other that has bought at 40 cents 12 month ago is trying to protect his gains? Maybe...I do not know.

In my view this is the main reason why the SP has dropped so dramatically.

If this is not the main reason then this would confuse me a little bit. JP Morgen has bought 8 mio shares in the last 6 months. Glencore indirectly has evaluated BTR shares at A$ 1.30. Perkoa somehow in the next few months should really deliver (is there somebody believing that Glencore will not be able to bring this into production and has invested millions of dollars for nothing? I do not believe so).

To make is short: Already in the "old" days Mumbwa was the blackbox and the joker. Meanwhile - at least in my view - Mumbwa is not a blackbox any more. Meanwhile we know that there is quite a lot of copper in the ground (okay...we are years away from a production but if...then the potential is substantial..). So Mumbwa still the joker in this story. Kitumba is more or less "explored". Kakozhi might be the next surprise and Mumbwa as a whole...well...still not really fully understood.

With other words: Mumbwa (again!) has been almost completely blinded out and is only marginally reflected in the SP. Last year for a few months the (possible) value of Mumbwa has been priced in. Meanwhile this value has faded out.

Well...holding a quite large number of shares obviously I am prejudiced against the future potential of the company....on the other hand I am realistic enough to ask myself what could go wrong here.

In my view the worst case scenario were that the PFS on Kitumba would be negative. That means: for what reason ever, BTR is not in the position to set up a profitable mining operation.

Perkoa alone - at least at current zinc price levels - is not worth too much.

I think everybody should make up his mind and try to evaluate unemotional what has happened in the last 2 weeks, what the fundamentals are and what the potential possibly might be. Is a relatively easy trade off.

I have tried to balance all pros and cons and for me it is pretty clear that the chance to see a higher SP in 12 or 24 months is higher then to see a substantially lower SP.

If the SP falls further I would not be surprised seeing Glencore making a "bargain" offer and trying to fully take over Perkoa and buying Mumbwa for free.

But maybe there are some people out there, that are of the opinion that the SP will fall further...probably the same people that thought last year that the SP will break the A$ 2.00 and that the sky might be the limit.

I hope that volatility will diminuis massively in the next few days and at least I see a bounce back into the 80s within 1-2 months. At the latest with the release of a (hopefully) positive PFS.