Australia’s “Positive” GDP Figures are anIllusionSeptember...

Australia’s “Positive” GDP Figures are anIllusion

September 17,2018

By Vern Gowdie

 

Anotherquarter passes and the headlines greet us with the news of stronger thanexpected GDP growth.

In days past,this ‘good’ news was cause for celebration.

But not now.People are starting to realise that the GDP number is a worthless measure ofpersonal well-being. The GDP numbers are a construct by statisticians forpoliticians.

Accordingto The Sydney Morning Herald on 9 September 2018…

‘CEDA’s( Committee for Economic Development of Australia) chief executive,economist Melinda Cilento, says the official narrative about GDP growth – anaggregate, economy-wide measure – just isn’t resonating. It is not a meaningfulindicator of progress for most Australians.

‘“I thinkpeople are saying ‘26 years of growth, great, but what matters to me is myexperience right here, right now and that aggregate [GDP] number is not a proxyfor my sense of improved living standards’,” says Cilento.’

And the reasonpeople are buying the ‘good’ news story is because they see their savingsdwindling and debt levels rising. And think…if these are the ‘good’ times, I’dhate to see the bad ones.

This is anextract from the ABC News article (emphasis is mine)…

‘Australianeconomic growth has picked up pace, growing by 3.4 per cent in the year to theend of June fuelled by consumer spending and financed by shrinkinghousehold savings.’

Just how muchhave households savings shrunk by?

The following chart is from the ABS June 2018 report ‘Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product’.

1	Source: ABS

Here’s an extract from the report (emphasis is mine)…

‘The household saving ratio is 1.0% in the June quarter 2018, which is at its lowest since December quarter 2007. This was due to continued strength in household final consumption expenditure (0.9%) alongside more moderate growth in household disposable income (0.4%).’

Couple of things here.

The December quarter 2007 was when the All Ordinaries peaked at 6828 points. Is that an ominous sign of history about to repeat itself?

Secondly, the savings rate has been in steady decline since late 2014.

And the reason for that becomes obvious from the following chart published in The Sydney Morning Herald...

1	Source: Sydney Morning Herald [Click to open in a new window]

The trend in wage growth had its steepest decline in the period June 2012 to December 2013.

As a consequence, households started raiding the ‘piggy bank’.

In addition to depleted savings, households have maintained a steady appetite for debt.

The demand for Consumer Credit (housing debt, credit cards, personal loans), since the credit crisis in 2008, has not waivered…we cannot help ourselves.

1	Source: Trading Economics [Click to open in a new window]

That extra $1.2 trillion in consumer debt since 2008 (and, the hundreds of billions borrowed by Federal, State and Local Governments) PLUS declining savings, is what’s behind our ‘recession free’ record.

While the politicians rejoice in our freedom from recession, households have sold themselves into debt slavery.

What do we have to show for our history-making run of positive GDP numbers?

Stagnating wage growth. Depleted savings. Record household debt.

Budget deficits at every level of government.

This is not a record we can take any pride in. 

Our lack of financial discipline (skilfully exploited by the finance industry) is cause for national shame…not something we should be proud of.

When you understand the ‘how’ of our GDP growth, you no longer need to wonder ‘why’ the numbers are a meaningless measure (emphasis is mine)…

‘Mortgage stress has risen as a new record high level of household debt against income is set across Australia, new data by research and analysis group Digital Finance Analytics shows.’

The Australian Financial Review 9 September 2018

For nearly three decades we have become conditioned to living (well) beyond our means.

The longer the period of perceived prosperity, the more we are tempted to bring forward future consumption…which only extends our period in debt servitude.

However, with stagnating wages and interest rates on the uptick, the capacity to borrow in ever increasing amounts is diminishing.

We can dip further into our savings to keep the illusion of ‘growth’ alive, but this too has a finite life.

How did Australia previously manage to avoid a recession?

We averted a recession after the last credit crisis due to a number of favourable factors…

Federal Government debt was zero.

Interest rates had plenty of room to fall…the cash rates was 7%.

China sanctioned a debt-fuelled ‘spend-a-thon’ that produced a spectacular mining boom.

Household debt was much lower.

Wage growth was closer to 4%.

Thanks to the central banks ‘aggressive’ strategy to encourage ‘all and sundry’ to borrow and spend, those conditions do not exist today.

China does not have the capacity for another credit splurge on that scale. They’ve fired that ‘shot in the locker’.

Interest rates are starting from a much lower number…1.5%.

Households are already feeling the pressure of too much debt and too little relief in their pay packet to be enticed by the RBA to ‘borrow to spend’.

The Federal Government debt is $650 billion and counting.

In relentless pursuit of the positive GDP headline, we have severely weakened our defences against the next crisis. There is precious little resistance left.

When it hits, we’re going to feel the full brunt of it.

There’ll be no escaping from it next time.

And, the next one is going to be far worse than the GFC for one simple reason…global debt has nearly doubled since 2008.

Will it be a default in emerging market (Turkey or Brazil or Argentina) debt or perhaps from China’s shadow banking system that causes the next crisis?

No one knows for sure. But what we do know is the legacy from the response to the Lehman Brothers collapse is a world that is far more indebted than it has ever been in history.

This is not a legacy central bankers can be proud of…and Australia has certainly played its part in this tragic farce.

Regards

Vern Gowdie,
Editor, The Gowdie Letter

https://www.marketsandmoney.com.au/australias-positive-gdp-figures-are-an-illusion/2018/09/17/