BLK EV and Valuation, page-2

First 2 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Bludog

84 Posts.

18

30/10/17

10:04

Post #: 28302273
Share

Originally posted by rumbai12 ↑

With the 20%+ fall in BLK on friday following the shocking Qtrly, it got me thinking, what is the Enterprise Value (EV) for valuation of BLK?

If the directors or Orion put this into administration- what is it worth.

Currently at the end of September there was $10M in cash and gold. If we assume they are losing $3M per month lets call it $7M.

There is debt of $37M. So cash = - $30M or -$27M.

They have spent close to $100M since 2014 by placements and debt on this project.

There are feasability studies confirming reserve of 1.1M oz and resource of 6M oz.

The expansion study has an NPV of $350M however you have to spend another $115m+ to do that.

For the last 2 quarters the grade has been 1.3/ & 1.4 g/t and AISC has been in excess of $2000/oz.

So on that basis, I can not see many parties wanting to buy it.

Under that scenario, there is zero equity value.

But lets look at it another way.

If all the development work, has now been done.

AISC could be reduced to $1400 - $1500, meaning profit of $100 - $200/oz and there was no expansion just focusing on 15,000 oz per quarter, 60,000 oz per year.

Then you could have EBITDA $6m - $12M per year before repayment of debt and tax.

Lets be conservative and say $6M. conservative valuation of $45M.

I would imagine that the grade would need to be more than 2.5 g/T.

Unfortunately it is not there now and until they produce at those levels, it is probably less.

I would say the expansion plans are over.

Just focus on getting production below $1400/oz and then it works.

If not it does not. Simple as that.

Good luck holders.

DYOR

Expand

Well .. interesting analysis.Now that we have had all this detailed expert analysis from the non holders, can someone answer a very simple question.... WHO is it that is BUYING ..... and WHY?.

BLK Price at posting: 16.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

Week 27 Wrap: 40% China tariffs?; ASX +10% FY25; US Amazon price spike

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 016 – FY25 ended up not so bad... but Trump unpause is coming

OSL

OncoSil wraps up recruitment for key pancreatic cancer trial

I88

Infini Resources onto Phase 2 at Portland Creek after spotting 'widespread uranium'

KGD

Kula picks up unexplored niobium play in Malawi, with surface samples logged

Trump chides Powell as Goldman call for calm. The RBA must be nervous

DMP

Is Domino's a steal after -25% plunge?

NMG

New Murchison Gold blasts off at Crown Prince as 'better than expected' results return

HotCopper Highlights, Week 27: G8 scalped, Domino’s drops the box, Gemlife brief hype & more

THL

Tourism Holdings says Liberation Day tariffs smashed US RV demand

First 2 Last

Add to My Watchlist

What is My Watchlist?

A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.

BLK EV and Valuation, page-2

Top Stories

Week 27 Wrap: 40% China tariffs?; ASX +10% FY25; US Amazon price spike

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 016 – FY25 ended up not so bad... but Trump unpause is coming

OncoSil wraps up recruitment for key pancreatic cancer trial

Infini Resources onto Phase 2 at Portland Creek after spotting 'widespread uranium'

Kula picks up unexplored niobium play in Malawi, with surface samples logged

Trump chides Powell as Goldman call for calm. The RBA must be nervous

Is Domino's a steal after -25% plunge?

New Murchison Gold blasts off at Crown Prince as 'better than expected' results return

HotCopper Highlights, Week 27: G8 scalped, Domino’s drops the box, Gemlife brief hype & more

Tourism Holdings says Liberation Day tariffs smashed US RV demand

Featured News