First of all I commend you on your analytical nature. You are one my favorite posters on HC. I will rebuttal your points but will then take step away as I don't want my opinion to be considering as down ramping.
Context:
My initial post was more a reaction to this thread. Some good quality posters on the PIL over the last 18 months and I felt that the beginning of this thread (Potential BC) was rather insulting and misleading for newbie investors. ( I do understand that this is my problem).
I have been following PIL very closely. Researching about our partners (as others), reaching out to my connections in the Philippines, looking at the competition and one way communication via emails to PIL. The constant change of direction and the failure of crystallizing anything frustrated me. What kept me in was the progress reported on in the Qs. By that I mean, the increase in registered users, the number of transactions and the revenue corresponding revenue. This was growing QonQ at rate I was very happy with. The announcement U.Bank rolling out to 2.5 was a game changer causing me double down (but look what happened). These tangible growth metrics pushing the company to CF+ along side the Blue Sky potential of the unbanked trails was great.
Response to your points 1. U:Their core technology (what cost $10m) is out of date. T:If their technology was out of date they wouldn't have signed agreements and strategic partners with the large companies that they have over the past 12 months
Easy. Show them a version of the app with basic functionality and great selling skills. This company is led by a Banker and a Lawyer (no techies). This is why we keep signing new agreements (good salesmen skills). On paper PIL looks great. The problem is the actual product they built.Keep in mind, this point was in regards to the Banked application technology. Which was just not working, hence one of the reasons to RTO.
2.U:They are having problems with fundamental issues in core offerings (both Banked and non Banked). Warning sign. T:Not in my eyes. Addressing issues at the pilot stage is paramount for when they roll out full scale successfully.
Fair point. Just keep in mind that the non-banked app has been in development for over 2 years now. Never the less, their banked apps have horrendous reviews on the app stores. Very bad ratings compared to their competitors. Hence the very slow growth of registered users and the reluctance of any of the banks to scale (as well as Metrobank just canning it) They have Lost a teir 1 bank contract.
3. U: Lack of any proper explanations around these trails. Just a lessons learned BS. Warning sign. T: I think they have provided proper explanations around trials in their 4C's. Sure, a few more issues to iron out, but these are at the trial stage and they too are learning and understanding priority issues that need to be addressed prior to full scale launch.
This point is quiet substantive and I could go in details. But I urge everyone to copy/paste all the information under each of these opportunities and read them in chronological order. I kindly request you to read the Dec Q of 2015 which was released in Jan 2016 (Just under 2 years ago). It's the same carrot being dangled. Myweps and 1Bro Global network. Same 2 "Trails"....for 2 years now... Really?
4.U: Rod has zero expertise in Blockchain - What has he been doing for the last 12 months? You may want to refer to Rod's bio on the PIL company website below. Take a look at what he's been at the forefront in. http://pepltd.com.au/our-team/
I stand by my original point. LinkedIn and the payment constituting website are far more reliable than a mention. And again, Rod details his experiences on LinkedIn. No buzz word mentions.
5. U: Revenue doesn't look like it's going ramp up significantly anytime soon. Warning sign.
T: Revenue has been slightly increasing quarter on quarter and has increased significantly when viewed YOY. Revenue hasn't really shown its true potential as we are only at the trial stages on most projects
Again we have lost one of our banked contracts. Taking away a third of our registered users and hence appox a third of our revenue. Also, we are a third way through the current quarter. If the stars do magically align and we do get a commercial roll out announced , it won't be realist that it will occur in time in time hit a critical mass of users to generate meaningful income. Hence the my prediction of declining revenue.
6. U They will (or had) lose more than a third of their registered bank users i.e. (over a third of their cash receipts) - They steered away from hard numbers this Q. Warning sign. Are you able to highlight what specifically you are referring to? My view is that an increase in revenue could come from the new partnerships/agreements that they have established, but will require a bit more time. But I'm ok with that as short term doesn't interest me.
Refer to point 5.
7. *Company is basically broke. Warning sign. PIL just secured a strategic investment at a premium with SDUT, a strategic partner with an intrinsic understanding of the fintech space to assist them with their next phase of growth. Not bad for a company of this size, don't you think?
I agree good deal (on paper). But why are being drop fed the money. Why the 3B before the Q? Why not all at once? Why not mention that it won't be all once at one go? Why would they pay 2 twice as much as the SP at that time? Again face value it looks great... I do feel skeptical though.
8. U: Been holding since July 2016. Progress has been insignificant. Failure to execute on anything. T: If you call ironing out issues at the final stages of trials as insignificant, then I politely disagree. This is imperative prior to full scale commercial rollout/s. I'd rather they spend time on these issues now and work co-operatively with partners at this stage than see issues appearing right across the board later down the track.
100% it's imperative to iron out these issues. Facts are facts; until today they have not delivered any full scale launches. It's been 2 years. We are fin-tech. A super competitive space. The boat is passing as we speak.
I will check back in next Q. I don't mind jumping back in at a premium on the basis of improved FA and increase cash recipes under controlled costs.
(20min delay)