blood and guts all over the floor..., page-126

Adding wieght to T4P's argument:

It is my belief that average opinion is practically never correct so perceptions can be all, however, average opinion can move prices of stocks and markets.

Perhaps it is similar to a beauty contest, where perhaps it isn't as important to believe whom you think is the most beautiful contestant, but perhaps what the judges believe to be the most attractive contestant. Perhaps we should be devoting our collective intelligence to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.

On any forum, individual opinions are of mostly little value IMO - why? - Because they are so frequently wrong - especially at turning points in trends.On the other hand, the human traits of fear, hope, greed, ego and wishful thinking are so strong it is impossible to be objective.Therefore, if we rely stubbornly on our own opinion, perhaps we are likely to do so whether right or wrong. The defence of your own opinions is a strong urge. Therefore, I conclude that in the face of the unreliability of our own and also crowd opinions, why don't many of us make the strenuous effort to see the opposite side - to examine the facts and evidence and if warranted, act in the opposite way. It is hard to question.

My feeling is that in order to beat the market, it is foolish to to do just what other people are doing, because there are almost sure to be too many people doing the same thing. So perhaps the market has been driven to extremes of over valuation or undervaluation?

Sometimes, it is the best during these times to do the opposite to everyone else. IMO, the more widely a view is accepted, the more likely it is wrong and that then we should all consider contrary views.

On line trading psychology is becoming more and more known and used by many sectors within the marketing and financial worlds:

People tend to define themselves in terms of a group for similar people with whom they form similar interests or relationships.

But I hear a few say...why bother? It is comfortable to be part of the crowd? Even if the crowd is wrong in the end, no-one can blame us - everyone was fooled alike?

To those that are a little newish to the marketplace, as we move slowly through life we will see, hear and perhaps meet some of the great exponents of contrary thinking. These are alway people who demand evidence - they never accept anything on face value.

Many contrarians "see" where things are going and set their targets on perhaps future trends rather than the total present or past.

IMO, the crowd can be sometimes right. However, it is always wrong at turning points - the very time it is important to be right.

Again, I suggest we use our collective intelligence (LOL)to anticipate what average opinion expects the average opinion to be,then we will be a step ahead of the average,after which conlusions can be drawn and money can be made.

I call the market being down 100 plus points.