Blood in the Streets - The Sequel, page-58

Morgan Stanley thinks Magellan Financial Group could de-rate and head towards the broker's $17.00 bear case valuation. It's estimated around 75% of funds under management (FUM) is at risk of seeing lumpy outflows from institutional clients.

This comes as the company entered a trading halt on Friday over a ‘termination of a material contract’, which implies to the analyst an earnings impact of at least -5%. The Underweight rating and $29.30 target price are maintained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is$29.30Current Price is$29.36Difference:minus $0.06(current price is over target).
IfMFGmeets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximatelyminus 0%(excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is$37.11, suggesting upside of26.4%(ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full yearFY22dividend of240.00cents and EPS of243.00cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is8.17%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is12.08. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is243.3, implying annual growth of68.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is229.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is12.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full yearFY23EPS of252.00cents. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is11.65. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is252.0, implying annual growth of3.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is229.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is11.7.