blowing in the wind

From more than a decade ago I remember seeing analysts’ reports on SLX wafting on about the Silex technology and Silex’s perpetual royalty, then mentioning that the enriched Uranium market was something like $6 billion per year and some virtual hand waving suggested the share value was above $10. More recently, I have read analysts’ reports with a strikingly similar analysis suggesting the share price could shoot up to $2. If the analysts of investment houses are of similar mettle it is no wonder we have not found an anchor for the SLX share price despite the confidence of Hotcopper shareholders.
We probably have the necessary knowledge on Hotcopper to fill the analytical void but I haven't seen it yet.
I thought I would start the ball rolling by making a quick present valuation per share analysis roughly based on what I remember as more or less consensus views about GE’s plans for Silex enrichment technology. Someone can correct my assumptions if they are too far astray but it seems hard to dismiss a fair value share valuation of about $4.00.
I leave it to others also to add a value that should be assigned to Silex’s cash and other prospects.
Silex Valuation Analysis assigned to enrichment technology
My Assumptions concerning enrichment:
1. Market value of 1 SWU $100
2. Plant Annual Production (SWUs) 6,000,000
3. Perpetual Royalty Rate 7.00%
4. Real Discount Rate 6.00%
5. Probability facility doesn't proceed 25%
6. probability of no 2nd facility 40%
7. No of Silex Shares 170,000,000

Calculation 1:
Present Value of 6 million SWU facility operating today
Value of Production $600,000,000
Annual Royalty Payable to Silex $42,000,000
Present Value of perpetual Royalty Stream $700,000,000
Present Value per share V = $4.12

Calculation 2:
Value to SLX now of of 6 m SWU facility becoming operational in future years
(= S V x discount factor x probability of commissioning in particular year)
Value of SLX now based on one plausible future scenario

Years-------------------------------Disc---Contrib
to go---Plant----Probability---factor----to SP
3------1st Plant----0.25--------0.84-----0.86
4------1st Plant----0.25--------0.79-----0.82
5------1st Plant----0.25--------0.75-----0.77
6------2nd Plant-----0.2--------0.70-----0.58
7------2nd Plant-----0.2--------0.67-----0.55
8------2nd Plant-----0.2--------0.63-----0.52
-----------------------------------Total----4.09
Expected Value of Share Price Today based on GE venture $4.09

Needless to say I still remain bullish on SLX despite a lot of financial bruising.