there is still mention on various threads about the 18.5 figure. I said ??? several weeks ago that I thought that by the time we got to the official release of the half revenue report - that the number would be irrelevant.
One thing I did clearly come back from Perth with is that my feeling on that is even stronger. Of course - we would have to get within a couple/few million of it - or at least not miss it by a country mile - but, otherwise - I think it will basically be not noticed - bar by some HC people.
Normally, I discount any meaning for 4C's - early on - mainly because when you are talking about very small numbers - it is dreadfully difficult - hmmm, na - impossible really to get a handle on what has in reality happened because of terms of business, late payments, delayed orders etc. etc. - but, as the numbers grow - and over a larger number of customers - those variances become less problematic in getting an idea of what is happening.
So - I met some in the big end of town - who are definitely looking to the 4C as an indication - ditto the half report - ditto any deals or big news and very much ditto listing. The actual dollar figure in the half report - as long as it is within cooee of the much advertised figure - is by far and away the least watched for.
IMO - we, who have been watching like 15 year old boys hiding in the sand dunes at a nudist beach for the last year plus - it might mean something really important - but, consider if we list in January and we have a whole new mob of US (and other nationalities at a guess) investors - who basically haven't even heard of the 18.5 million figure - have never read Hot Copper and - will only be exposed to a large leap in receipts on a brand new shiny 4C and then get a whoomp of a revenue jump at the end of February - which will be THOUSANDS of percent above the same period last year - no matter how short it falls of the 18.5. (tell me no one needs a ref. for that thousands of percent comment - just read the last 4C and work out the first CY half revenue, add them up and see the magic)
And, sure - if nothing much changes between now and then - then, yes - some long holding, pain suffering Aussies will cash in their chips to get their money back and wipe their brow with relief - but, my guess is that their released stock will just feed the fire - like throwing volatile fuel on it.
Of course - all that depends on only some of the balls in the air that we can see - and, there could be more - which might well give us a different starting point from where we are now - but, at least it's one option to ponder on.
Anyway - all IMO as usual.
Just a note on one meeting with someone really well connected to the market game - my opinion of their opinion (don't you just love HC speak) --- was that we would not be able to list without raising - even if it is a tiny amount - because they just couldn't see how a bank would make any money at all without a raising.
I stated that both Nick and Gavin had published many times now and had been reported even more saying that we would NOT be raising - just listing - but, that did not sway my contacts opinion 1 millimetre - and, I know a lot of this persons history and they know their business ----------------- so, I am - officially 'very confused' on that point - not that it matters much really at a guess - a tiny dilution would be irrelevant in the scheme of things and it seems we wouldn't need the money at all - so, if so, it would only be a technicality.
If they do raise - at least it gives me a heads up (as long as I read every day in detail) - because I keep up with the raisings every day on the US markets - I have been watching for months.
One thing is for sure - although the last while prior to the AGM was bat poop boring - January and February might well make up for it all ------ we shall see.
Pinto
AJX Price at posting:
56.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)