Blue sky projections for AJX, page-7

Alexium seem more than 19 months away from $100m sales but if we take $100m sales as an evaluation point and change a few assumptions :-

- assume $100m sales not achieved until FY2020 (3 years into future)
- reduce margin to 35% ($35m)
- increase fixed costs to 10% ($10m)
- assume rate of exchange between USD and AUD remains the same

Net Ebitda becomes $25m
Tax @30% becomes $7.5m
NPAT becomes $17.5m
NPAT AUD becomes A$23.31 .
Assume 10% dilution p.a. (they will want to reward themselves and mates with discounted placings , performance shares and options) .
Total # shares by end of FY2020 = 426million minimum .
PE of 12 , Mcap becomes A$280m SP A$0.66
PE of 15 , Mcap becomes A$350m SP A$0.82
PE of 20 , Mcap becomes A$465m SP A$1.09

My heart tells me to buy Alexium but my head keeps overriding it .