bly holders, page-26

Just fyi - below is the Bell Potter analysis. Nothing new. Has to be a BUY, worst case for the long term. Best case for the short/medium term as they may have been conservative in their timing for re-financing. We have a good suprise here.

􀂄 Guidance implies 65% drop in EBITDA
Boart has issued FY09 guidance for a 35-45% (US$640-830m) fall in group revenue, and EBITDA margin of 11-13% (from 20%). The forecast implies a 60% drop in EBITDA over 2008 and 40% downgrade to our previous estimates. Tough trading conditions in Q1 have continued into Q2, although Boart is seeing some stabilisation in the sales pipeline, particularly at the lower end, given the recent rise in base metals prices and recovery in capital markets
􀂄 Earnings changes see FY09 net loss; continue to anticipate FY10 recovery We have reduced our forecasts over the next 3 years and now forecast a small net loss of US$3m in FY09. A projected bottoming in trading conditions in H209 is expected to drive a turnaround in FY10 net profit to US$34m. We continue to believe FY09 will reflect trough earnings for the group.
􀂄 Debt refinancing remains key milestone
Boart needs to refinance US$0.6bn of debt by April 2010. Management is working to finalise the refinancing of this debt by end-2009 with formal negotiations expected to commence shortly. We see this milestone as providing a key positive catalyst for the stock. The target date remains in advance of the FY09 covenant compliance tests, which based on our new forecasts Boart will be in breach of.
􀂄 Valuation / Price target A$0.16 (unchanged)
Valuation is based on a through the cycle sum of the parts and employs average multiples for Boart’s global trading peers.