Looking at the sentiment in zinc: a hat full of poo. A year ago,...

Looking at the sentiment in zinc: a hat full of poo. A year ago, I was picking zinc at $1/lb. And recovering in '09. Right now, I'm beginning to consider that even if this is the case, you don't want to be in zinc until 2010 unless you are an Australian cricketer. Even a 7.8 earthquake can't stop the Chinese smelters pissing on the zinc price.

So. MTB might have economic grades. Technically it's doable. Corporately...well, the all mighty Xray once accused the management of the company (here I am making a distinction between the shareholders and management; a company being a collective, not just its leaders) of starting a project and leaving it unfinished, moving on to the next best thing and letting the half-finished dregs fall by the wayside.

Well, if their new diamond project is the focus, we can expect they will not be avidly pursuing Kihabe any time soon, and will prove curmudgeonly Xray right. I think this is a fairly good chance.

So. I think that, were I you, any surge in share price with the diamonds, particularly to 8c, should be used as an excuse for a greaceful exit. If the diamonds really turn up trumps, dare I suggest you'll have a huge opportunity to buy back in as they refinance to afford large-diameter drilling for bulk samples and spend 5 years dicking around with a pipe full of pretty stones? Maybe you can derisk half your stock at 8c and go put your money in the bank and earn 6% real returns versus 50% real losses in the last year alone?

And let us assume that they can actually pick a good time to finance themselves, and don't do it qurterly like clockwork. Lets say, a peak like the December/January period last year where they could have backed up a $2M subscription for a bit of effort with the paperwork and saved themselves half the dilution they've copped right now.

So maybe they get to 20c/$40M market cap, on some pretty rocks at Tschaucheb, and sell 15% to raise $5M. That'll finance a year's wages and champas, 4 months drilling and feasibility at Kihabe, and about 6 caldwell holes at Tschacheb let alone any amount of HQ core to define the pipe size. Dare I suggest that they'll not manage this, and will back into the market like a woodpecker every 3 months for a million bucks hoping to get to 40c/$85M market cap?

The truth is, MTB is worth only as much as a couple of hard-nosed management decisions will make it. It could be a billion buck market cap company in 5 years, or it cvould be a dog's breakfast in 6 months.