ive just finished reading the pfs in detail, i was busy...

ive just finished reading the pfs in detail, i was busy yesterday.

price is what the price is but i honestly feel many retail people and the odd insto are missing a trick here.

the npv is not sensitive to capex. thus the specatular capex number is not really reflected in the age old npv methodology.

we cant blame analysts for using npv BUT as we know virtually every other U company is NOT valused on npv but on EV/lb, strategic value and npv or a combination of the above.

so...

the fact they can bulid this for US$550m to produce a life of mine of approx 100mlb of total production (16yrs X ave 6m lbs p.a.) gives a rough figure of US$5.50/lb of installed capacity.

In industry terms this is a fantastic figure for capital/lb installed capacity. the mkt players will be watching this figure very closely as this is the number they have to "pay" to get the product.

this in my opinion makes etango massively attractive to strategic buyers. if you want 7mlb p.a. to secure supply for base load N power generation (India, Russia, China, Frace etc) then whilst you wont make a fortune mining it, you probably dont care because you wont lose money and you have secured supply and put in a natural hedge against rising U prices.

IMO this is the investment premise and whilst it doesnt apply to all, it has always been my modus operandi.

PDN, DYL, MRU, FSY etc all trade on variations of strategic value +/- fwd cashflow.

BMN is being singled out here as its ahead of the pack in terms of greenfields large volume production.

this leads me to the believe an offer is in the wings, simply because BMN is so damn cheap. as ive said previously aside from the quasi govt entities (india, russia, france, china) there are several companies wiht big mkt caps and no real projects.

the obvious one is FSY. they got a mkt cap of C$350m. a project up the road in namibia with 60% lower grade than us and less than half the lbs and a very mkt savvy board.

ill say it again, they have a mkt cap of C$350m compared to ours of C$110m.

what would you do if your were FSY? and i note thier SP has been pumping up over last 3 months since Bob Buchorn came on the Board (to do what you ask!).

so i feel FSY are a snake in the grass, but it may be UUU or DEN or even KAH? who knows. but US$5.50/lb installed capacity profitably at a modest fwd U price is not going to go unnoticed.

Why spend billions for product when you can spend one tenth of the amount!

the point is BMN is a prime target and the lower the SP goes, the lower the eventual price we all get IMO. so why sell?

Interestingly the Canadian trade overnight did not seem to reflect the aussie trade in terms of retail suicide.

I fully concede the opex was a disapointment but only if you invest in U companies for an NPV figure. I personaly dont but clearly the higher the NPV the better....no excuses there.

however the OPEX has scope to come down and maybe the company needs to sell this a bit better. they are a very conservative board. perhaps some more salemanship is now warranted.

i note that whilst 13m shares were sold today, but that means 13m were bought...i wonder who and why they bought all those shares of you?

good luck all, these are just my opinions btw. based on analyses of the situation as i see it.