The significant run in CPL/CPT may be attributed to the recent...

The significant run in CPL/CPT may be attributed to the recent research upgrade to outperform by BMO Capital. Significant buying in Canada appears to be via BMO and RBC. On 23 March BMO increased vista NPV to $2.52 /share based on their increase in long-run seaborne thermal coal pricing of US$95/t FOB and a 10% discount rate. This was formally $US85. Their increase in price target to A$2.20 (C$2.24) target represents just 0.9x NPV versus an industry average of 1.3x for their coal coverage group. At 1.3x NPV Vista would represent NPV/share of $3.27. They go on to say discount to the group may prove conservative, but represents development risks for Coalspur's Vista project, a feasibility stage project.

I would suggest that any announcement re permitting would see price targets climb north of $2.50. In addition no value appears to be ascribed to Vista South, increase in Vista resources or an increase in DFS production figures all of which contain considerable NPV/share upside as does project de-risking with permitting and funding.

Let's remember that RBC also stated that an increase in their long range thermal coal price of 10% to approx US$93 would see a 67c increase in NPV/share to approx $2.67.

Found this link

http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/IA/IAHomepage/NewsToBrowser.asp?IA_ID=LORNAPAR&LANGUAGE=EN&NEWS_ID=523&VERSION=null

Last week for a second year in a row, BMO Capital Markets was named the World's Best Metals and Mining Investment Bank by Global Finance Magazine. Not bad having these guys on our side.

Regards

Danash