You might want to have a look at note 13 in the 4D to see how...

You might want to have a look at note 13 in the 4D to see how small the BNBG liability is compared with the rest of the debt.

It's $415m out of a total $9,615m, or 4.3%.

This amount simply isn't big enough for the company to say to note holders "convert to shares or the alternative is administration".

...and why would they?

They can keep deferring interest on the notes until the a) the company returns to health, which in time it probably will b) They get bought out, which is a real possibility next year. At the current prices, any suitor could buy $1m, $2m or $3m of BNBG debt a day for 3c in the dollar prior to a bid without anyone really noticing. c) It all turns to custard.

On a final note, you can't translate the current market price into a percentage probability of success. That's ridiculous. The price represents the market view of the risk premium required to hold the note. As an example, if BHP issued a zero coupon note trading at $90, would you assume the market is suggesting there is a 10% chance BHP will go bust?

In my opinion, this is a simple all-or-nothing play. Either the company will rise from the ashes and BNBG will return in time to par ($100) or the company will go belly up. With the banks giving some working capital to BNB due in Dec 2009 and allowing the company to 'pay as you can' interest, I'd say there is a lot of support to see BNB through this (temporary) distressed state.