>BNB is going to continue in its distressed state for months or years.
At this point, we know there will be a plan presented to the banks on the 9th of January.
By late February, we should know the shape of the capital reconstruction.
Also, by late February, we should have the '08 annual accounts. The level of disclosure on asset income and debt is generally very good, across BNB and the satellites.
Late February, we will have a very detailed picture of the new capital structure, asset values, income streams, etc.
It is worth pointing out that these are NOT weak assets, in the infrastructure space. It is further worth pointing out that the assets in the satellites are, generally, associated with much higher debt levels as a percentage of asset income less fees.
Hence, I believe that even the worst case impairment scenarios for BNB still leave the the ordinary holders with some positive book value per share.
Fact is, I cannot quantify this between an upper and lower band, say. Given that I consider BNB and satellites to be significantly oversold, right now, I am most comfortable holding the subordinated notes.
BNB
babcock & brown limited
