#BnplGoingToZero, page-531

Bingo bongo. You are mostly correct, except for the most important part.

bankruptcy everywhere?

insolvencies both personal and for corporations continue to fall. Supporting this is latest reports with AFSA and ASIC which show something very opposite to what you’re suggesting?

Construction companies maybe, but that’s largely due to fixed price contracts, cash flow issues, withheld progress payments from financiers, and increased costs of goods / supply chain delays..

Lots and lots of jobs, especially white collar. No reason to panic just yet.

Rates aren’t going anywhere, in my opinion. Aus is so delayed in the global checkers, that any on flow from Europe and UK will take at least another 12-18 months to hit shores here IMO. Plus, their immediate economic challenges are different to ours,

Leave your house, go out into town, have some fresh air , and you will see the place is flooded. Cars back on the road, restaurants booked up, people back living their best life again.

The newer generations learning to live with a defeatist attitude towards Australian home ownership, and instead give up their savings and instead spend on travelling, living, entertaining and eating.

All factors lead me to suggest that rates will continue upwards in my opinion. No bull run for a good while yet and whichever way I look at it, 6 consecutive interest rate rises and spending has hardly moved. It is pretty telling.

Property will be the largest concern, and rightly so with the near 900,000 fixed rate mortgages to come off fixed this year…but it’s nicely hedged to lessen any hardcore impacts on consumer spending.

However is it worth shorting ALL BNPL? I agree that theres lots more pressure to be felt on credit and interest rate exposed risks, you’re right. But watch out for the financials, as it’s those with weak moats, no exclusivity, weak balance sheets and concerning cash positions that will be hit hardest.

while it’s also a double whammy, I think the pressure is largely going to be on zips interest rate and credit risk rather than from a serious slow down in spending/top line.