@TheDollarLamalove the handle :)i spent a good portion of my...

@TheDollarLama
love the handle

i spent a good portion of my earlier career critiquing flowsheets on valuation end outcomes for pre cashflows and I regard it as largely a waste of time for public market investors

the variables change so incredibly over time that targetting end outcomes - particularly the cost and timing of finance, realised metal prices and market multiples and project dimensions - that your implied value/share on NPV basis is rarely within 30% of what was forecast 3 years prior

Whats also not true to my experience is the 60% of npv rule of thumb

that work needs to be done by internals, analysts - but its a discipline thats primarily valuable once a mine is up and most of the variables fixed, as far as external investors are concerned

prior to the bulk of pre-capex being done- and having those 'stakes' in the ground - resource scale, mineral value intensity and setting (ie value per tonne/tonnes/waste), mgt and investment marketing sophistication, metal composition and peer multiple(s), risk analysis and finally technicals - are much more reliable pointers to end SP outcomes

dont mean to rain on your efforts or be unsupportive - but thats my view from a public market seat

i have vivid recollection of a UBS analyst who shared a breakdown of a draft initiation valuation on a stock in 2012 with sp of $1.07 and a $3.15 valuation in 3 years - and I was urging him not to publish it

stock was ~37c I think when it entered production and 5c last time i checked a few years ago

much safer to do such work now at this cycle point vs then.

but the outtake for metal investors always holds

@Verily1's been posting npv calcs on sorby hills for 3+ years - comparison between original and now would speak to my point