To stop sounding like a broken record, i'll write it more simpler. Yes there is a premium today but mapping this so called premium since December has shown it is negative some days, positive others. There is no definitive trend here, so waiting through April is a better strategy. The ongoing cost to Meo holders of accepting this bid and then trading on the AIM is too high - wipe out any potential low premium. My theory is the premium is driven by some perception that the bid will succceed, which I can't see happening unless Mosman pulls something out of the hat in April.
On wanting Meo's cash issue, whilst Meo has cash when you lease a rig etc it will cost quite a lot of money so the Meo cash that might fund a leasing arrangment is likley to be less than 3 months when actual exploration or drilling commences. What this corporate raider wants is the Meo assets and to sell these down to fund Mosman's plans - that is the real plan here as that is teh real cash flow plan for funding Mosman's exploration (without the need for a capital injection and hence share dillution). So I am yet still to get my answers from Mosman holders to my question of 3.15 20 March - seems another strategy of distract and deflect here. Give me the facts why I am wrong in this view by answering that post.
I am not blind - there are no guarntees here. I read the Meo statement as just that. But the key here is evalaution of benefit against risk - as I have said in numerous posts there is only upside potential in Meo as it has bottomed whilst there are too many risks with Mosman even if they went 5:1 because without p50/p90 sooner or later the market will hammer this Mosman stock.- The biggest concern too me is my view that Mosman will sell the offshore Austyralian tenemnets - where there is potential to make money - for the pursuit of some potential commercially viable low production yielding onshore devlopment. Even by some fluke of chance you found oil - just ask Kea Petrioluem and map their share price - low production volumes will make the stock highly volatile as any problems will lead to shutdown and a very fast plummenting share price. Simple as that
When I invested in Meo it was on the assumption I could lose my money - oil/gas exploration in offshore waters is a risky business as less than 1 in one hundred, from memeory, drills give a viable resource. but the rewards can be significant. Investing in onshore petroleum focussed operations leads to a lower reward and possibly slightly lower risks but it means you can't make a lot of money. So why would I want to change my strategy now - if I wanted a lower risk and onshore development I would have invested back then in an onshore development so I am not going to do it now. Yes I have lost money but where the Meo price is now I can't lose much more - only upside here and I have been heartened by recent Meo developments.
And finally all hypothetical relating to Mosman - you haven't even found a commercially viable low production yeilding onshore development yet - your low reserves willl not lead to a viable development. So when you do, ask your friends Kea, also listed on AIM, about potential problems.
The Chairman's address gives no promises as does Mosman by the way, so I'll take my chances with Meo. Anyway Oilfriend waiting for your answers - In2it do me a favour, when the premium becomes negative, which I suspect will be sometime in April, please sell your shares and buy Mosman (if you already don't own Mosman shares). But I am open and if Mosman surprises in April then I can revisit my opinion on 1 May (a view consistent with earlier posts too).
MEO Price at posting:
1.2¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held