From the early 2022 low we had a pretty relentless QQQ rally...

From the early 2022 low we had a pretty relentless QQQ rally which caused me to tuck my tail between my legs. As it failed to break highs for the last few months I stepped up my short exposure.

I didnt know that it would break like it did and I would certainly not add on confirmation of technical signals though I would cover on a break out from prior highs.

We should expect jaw dropping falls and face ripper rallies through this bear market manage as best you can. A crash can come from "oversold" conditions.

I think people got suckered into the narrative that long range EVs were going to displace all ICE cars. That was expressed in Teslas huge valuation which drew "legacy" ICE makers to expand capacity.

If what I am saying which Elon has confirmed that the price of these cars is too high then the weakness will persist but VW has profitable ICE lines that will carry them through while Tesla is a pure play.

The National government in NZ is removing EV rebates which is the right decision as no path to making them cost competitive has been demonstrated.

This is very similar to the US tight oil or "shale oil" "revolution"which was overhyped and expansion of capacity led to low oil prices and $350bn of impairment.

I think we will similarly see EVs sold below the cost of production, Teslas apparently industry leading profit margins are very questionable. Once again the financial statements can't be relied upon stop using them mate.

Why was Elon pessimistic on the call? Because he doesn't want to go to f*ing jail fish, he just disclosed the bear case to the market and all the rookies who've been conditioned to buy the dip didn't see what hit them.

I think he just made a huge leap foward for the defense when this thing blows up - I think that's his motivation of course he only ever cared about scamming people for their money.

I've got sympathy for retail and if we look at the funds management industry very few would call tesla out for what it was. Yet doing so is real value add even if it means underperforming the market for 5 years as TSLA goes up 20x.

Integrity and character are rare and valuable.