Thanks Zia. That certainly added to my understanding of the U process from a scientific point of view (although its complicated and will require more reinforcement before I could regurgitate it back to someone else).
After looking at this and then revisiting the Jan FS and the Aug announcement re process optimisation, I had the following basic takeaways/calcs from a financial perspective:
1. Was interesting that BoA confirmed that most sales of U (or U3O8) are done on the "term market" not the spot market. What I would term the contract price not spot price.
2. It stated that on long term averages term price is 26% above spot. Current spot is $31US/lb so current contract/term price would be $39.06US
3. Under AISC cost of $31.77US is considered a low cost producer, BOE Initial Feasibility was $27.40US, so we are certainly low cost
4. But in August announcement re Ion optimisation process, this reduced by $1.22, therefore AISC now = $26.18US
5. So just some rough basic math of $39.06 - $26.18 = $12.88US margin p/lb (before capex which is excluded from AISC)
6. Capex in FS was initially 63.2mil Us but reduced by down to 57mil approx after Ion optimisation Ann in Aug
7. 57mil / 24Mlb's LOM = $2.38 capex costs p/lb
8. Total cost p/lb = 26.18 ASIC + 2.38 Capex = 28.56
9. All up margin at todays est term/contract price = 39.06 - 28.56 = 10.5US p/lb = 26.88% net profit margin before tax
That looks healthy to me right now even without any upward price movements, so no wonder they are so confident we will be the next Australian uranium miner. This should be a very profitable and resilient mining company.
PS: Apologies if this is somewhat a replication or tinkered version of previous Feaso's I just found these simple calcs stuck in my head better.
GLTAH
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