Zwu
if you push the BOM thay will advise that they are flat out getting a 4 day forecast right. The business with 3 month is based on purely on probabilities. Thru records they are able to determine that in most el nino events winter and spring were most affected and summer rain normal.
At present 3 out of 12 computer models say a return to normal by march. The US are saying may at least, so far the US have been spot on whilst the BOM have been right after the event. I have been following the BOM 3 month and 10 day forecasts and they have are a waste of time.
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