Oliveoyl,I agree with you that it's difficult to even get a 4...

Oliveoyl,

I agree with you that it's difficult to even get a 4 day forecast right. However, 4-day forecast and 3-month 'seasonal' forecast are based on different methodologies. The 4-day forecast is based on atmospheric conditions (such as high/low pressure systems), whilst the 3-month one, as explained in the BoM website, is mainly on sea surface temperature distributions (such as El Nino). So these two are not really comparable.

I might agree with you that "At present 3 out of 12 computer models say a return to normal by march".

However, the following is from the BoM website (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml)

**FORECAST ENSO CONDITIONS
**FROM DECEMBER 2002

*GROUP (May 2003) (Aug 2003)
Bureau of Met (POAMA) Neutral Cool
CSIRO Neutral Neutral
CPC Warm Warm
COLA (2) Not Available Not Available
ECMWF Neutral Not Available
LDEO (4) Warm Neutral
NCEP Neutral Warm
NOAA LINEAR INVERSE Neutral Neutral
SCRIPPS/MPI Neutral Neutral
NSIPP/NASA Warm Warm
JMA Warm Not Available
CLIPER Neutral Cool

In the above 12 groups only 4 say in May El Nino will continue ("warm"), 7 say will not continue ('neutral') and 1 n/a. In Ausgust, El Neno will definately go according to these models.