BOM says 50% chance of El Nino

  1. 6,835 Posts.
    Quoting BOM expert Robyn Duell that they are predicting a 50% chance of an El Nino the ABC was of course uncritical!

    After all the same BOM has given a rolled gold 100% proclamation as to what our climate will be doing in 2100.

    Admitting how useless the BOM has become our expert confessed that in the past when they have predicted an El Nino they have been wrong 50% of the time. The prediction for 2100 is perfect though, faultless. Raven the chimp had a much higher hit rate.

    " "So for every 10 times we've issued to watch before, five times we haven't actually gone on to see El Nino conditions. But the other half of the times we have."   "

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-...er-cent-chance-of-el-nino-this-spring/9887644
 
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