BOM says 50% chance of El Nino, page-20

  1. 2,410 Posts.
    My interest is more in the seasonal result for Winter and if I was to be pedantic about the
    timing it is the effect of 74.4 year +- Solar Cycle start +- SOI +- IOD all in relation to 1944... so not expecting exact
    month for month but more seasonal as a progressive phase shift.

    I just think that 74.4 is a very strong starting point.

    Looking at the monthly Adelaide recorded no rainfall in August 1944 so will be interesting to
    see if the 4 week period is repeated or it shifts or overlaps into September or it is busted.

    So would expect some phasing of the rainfall result into next months or season...
 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.