HUM 1.25% 79.0¢ humm group limited

BOOM - Heading to 90 Cents, page-67

  1. 5,425 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 371
    It's heading to a buck...hold.

    The previous years results contained a bunch of confected numbers designed to entice us into giving up our stock. This will be unwound.

    In addition to presenting numbers that better reflect the buisness outlook we will also benefit from a cracking year in commercial, return of volume and margins in cards, reduced discretionary capex and a material reduction in marketing costs for consumer product.

    The company should produce $70-$80m in CNPAT for calendar 2023 and if it doesn't I will be very surprised.

    Do your own math but, with a positive narrative around commercial and a return to normal travel conditions, that puts it at about $600M - 750M or $1.25 to $1.50 per share in my calculations (after $60M allowance for the convertible pref).

    I'm thinking a takeover or merger could be on the horizon......it's a business that has product that would benefit immensely from scale.



 
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