boring , page-45

What is best - owning the coal OR owning an economic drying tech? What does the market think/want?

If you were Exergen where would you build the demo? They have always had LY as their first choice...and now with the $90m available its a no-brainer imo.

Where in the LV would they build it? Two realistic possibilties. Their likely ~1B allocation...or more likely AGL....nice and cosy with ECT's Coldry demo?

Some speculation today that Exergen will back door list. Why do that? Exergen want a 30 year project of 12 mtpa...ie ~25 mtpa of lignite by 30 = 750mt. Their 1Bt allocation covers that. If they wanted more coal, likely they would just ask for more in the allocation.

To back door list - Exergen would have to have a DEFINITE valuation on the assets they are merging with. How could Exergen value the "other" mobs LV tenements if they have not been drilled? They cant - there may be little or nothing economic there and the liklihood of those tenements being drilled in the next year let alone 5 years is low imo...so its an unlikely fantasy re Exergen rear listing.

Why would Exergen NEED/want to merge into that?

IMO, over the next 10 years or more its of little value to own vast tenements (unless you also own a tech) in the LV WHEN there is ~13 BILLION tonnes of prime unallocated coal there for zip $ that only needs infil drilling and NO mining licence required.

Some say its more valuable to own the coal than having the tech like ECT. Reality is there is enormous amounts of unallocated coal in prime LV...and very very few economic exportable drying solutions. Is it any wonder why ESI via Coldry is a 3 bagger on little news since Pilbara kickoff and the other has played most of its cards and its sp has gone backwards? Interesting too that Exergen only provided their tech for BM...and not LV too. Why do that?

Providing IMFAMA come good - I see a simple case of supply V demand unfolding. The tech coys like ECT/Exergen that OWN the techs will be the big winners in the Pilbara. There is plenty of unallocated coal already.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/90-million-for-latrobe-valley-brown-coal-20120803-23jps.html#ixzz23cVhNb8n

"Expressions of interests for grants will close on November 19. The governments says the first funded project will have construction scheduled for 2013-14."

I read yesterday somewhere that Exergens demo wont be built till 2016...so we can rule them out re the above comment. ECT said they will start construction 2013...and they fulfil ALL of the Govts criteria...interesting.

http://media.wotnews.com.au/asxann/00821548.pdf

DFT completion has been a lonnnng time coming...

tick tock...