Some things I pondered over my morning coffee at the local cafe re BOT's exceptional fundamentals. I can't listen to any distracting noise about BOT. The Japanese folk who suffer from primary axillary hyperhidrosis (PAH excessive sweating) have gone completely fkn nuts over this product (Sofpironium Bromide branded Ecclock by Kaken Pharmaceuticals); that Japan is in its 4th year of sales and has produced exceptional YoY growth; that since its inception in 2020 sales have gone from $170mil ¥ (FY20a), $950mil ¥ (FY21a), $1257mil ¥ (FY22a), and for about the last 12 months (its 4th year of sales) has achieved sales of 350,000 units @ $4874 ¥ = 1,705,900,000 ¥ !!!!!So this product must be freakin' good to produce these incredible sales figures! I guess it is because during clinical trials 9/10 participants experienced a clinically meaningful result from using the product! FDA approval in June, 2024, outstanding for a first and only chemical entity that is safe and effective for patients! Korea on board very very shortly! And USA sales figures are on their way ! We all know US sales will outperform!
Japan is 1/3 the size of the USA with similar disease prevalence!
How good is it that in the US that hyperhidrosis is recognised as a medical condition by health insurers? And patients can be diagnosed digitally and receive their prescription / Sofdra in the mail? So the 3.7mil sufferers (or thereabouts) who are currently seeking treatment can obtain their Sofdra effortlessly via the mail. IMHO many of the other $6.3mil sufferers who are not currently actively seeking treatment will also get on board and organise everything from the comfort of their home, all through Upscript Health. BTW a very smart move by BOT keeping SH expectations nice and low by offering conservative figures i.e. capturing 1% of the 3.7mil sufferers (37000). The recent Ann "Management have assumed a more than likely probability of achievement of US$250 million of revenue from the sale of productsin a financial year" - very conservative indeed! And what about the other 6mil sufferers (hands, face etc.) who desperately need an effective treatment?Who knows where BOT will take their research in the future after being able to successfully to date treat PAH (underarm) which is a distressing, embarrassing and socially challenging medical condition.
BOT are a gun / experienced management team who have successfully launched >30 products previously, have Upscript Health on board, and are running the webinar next week to coincide with US Fed rate cut - all very smart moves! Will there be a TO for BOT? If so, based upon previous success in Japan the offer would need to be exceptional! I am diamond fisting these shares in the event that this TO (Trading Halt) could occur at any given moment.
“The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage.” (Warren Buffett). I believe BOT has this (first and only safe / effective chemical entity). Looking forward to the webinar! IMHOO DYOR GLTAH
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Last
42.3¢ |
Change
0.008(1.81%) |
Mkt cap ! $761.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
41.5¢ | 42.8¢ | 41.5¢ | $1.709M | 4.060M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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25 | 438585 | 42.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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42.5¢ | 172998 | 4 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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25 | 438585 | 0.420 |
20 | 359521 | 0.415 |
15 | 442114 | 0.410 |
13 | 542096 | 0.405 |
21 | 766983 | 0.400 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.425 | 172998 | 4 |
0.430 | 189123 | 5 |
0.435 | 353064 | 8 |
0.440 | 346708 | 8 |
0.445 | 226957 | 7 |
Last trade - 13.19pm 11/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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