BOT - Anything but charting, page-10861

Japan has 300 000 patients..

We can deduct pretty well that 350,000 scripts (single scripts) does not equate to 300,000 patients (on an annualised basis).
Kaken forecast Y2,200m (USD$15m) for 2024. Working backwards, at USD$50/script = 305k single scripts. Annualised, that equals 25,416 patients using SB for a year.

Naturally, you can't determine patient numbers if one is going to only use for 2 months, another for 4 months, another for 8 months etc. But, that's not how one would normally try to assess an annualised rate.

Japand comparisons are redundant. The 75m marketing spend in the Usa are going to blow their numbers out the water.

Agreed- that 's the point I was trying to make. 40c is only based on 10k patients using it for a year, when Japan already has the equivalent of 25k patients using it for a year. I'm not saying there is strictly only 25k people involved @Lev20, just trying to demonstrate that annualised calculations demonstrate the market is pricing Sofdra well below what can be expected in sales, based on Japan's representations alone (let alone everything else we know the US market has to offer).

agreed....just reaffirms a level confidence that there is a demand for this product, hence taking a % of market to run back of the envelope for US is not pure made-up nonsense.

Precisely.