See below updated to include the last month of Similarweb data to 22 June. Remainder of June held flat per most recent 2 week average.
Note the New Customer:Web Traffic Ratio is speculative given the limited actuals data (2.8 and 1.0), hence the wide forecast spread (0.5 and 1.0). Should be able to firm this up with more data from the upcoming few quarterlies.
Also updated refill rate decay from 2.0% to 0.5% per month considering the recent strong comment of 3.1 refills in 3 months (>100% but unclear which period - underarm overuse, off label use or stockpiling?). Tempered USD net price per script down 12 to 400 considering recent Boreham comments on higher co-pay assistance earlier in the year, and Matt's recent comment to Straw on using ~400 safely - happy to be surprised to the upside here.
In summary, Q2 gross AUD revenue in line with prior forecasts.Expecting gross AUD revenue in the thirties to be reported for Q2. Qualitative data continues to support this - debt raising and recent Management interview comments. Best derma launch has a nice ring to it.
High Case 1.0 New Customer:Web Traffic Ratio = $43.3M gross AUD revenue
Low Case 0.5 New Customer:Web Traffic Ratio =$26.4M gross AUD revenue
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
=$26.4M gross AUD revenue
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