Hi all, Have taken a look at broker data across the following...

Hi all,

Have taken a look at broker data across the following periods:

• Jan 2021 as we await for the release of BTX 1801 Phase 2a results - table 1 below
• Mar 2020 prior to the release of BTX 1204 Dermatitis Phase 2 results on 25 Mar 2020 (after which the SP fell 65%) - table 2 below
• Oct 2019 prior to the release of BTX 1503 Acne Phase 2 results on 22 Oct 2019 (after which the SP fell 50%) - table 3 below

Most notably we can see that across the month of Jan 2021 there has been stronger net buying from large institutions (Credit Suisse, Merill Lynch, UBS, Macquarie, MS). This is in contrast to prior to the release of the acne results in particular, where there was stronger net selling from large institutions. On the face of things this could be viewed as a positive as we await for the antimicrobial phase 2a results.

Table 1 - Jan 2021 Antimicrobial



Table 2 - Mar 2020 Dermatitis



Table 3 - Oct 2019 Acne


Other points to consider are:

• The level of short sold stock - 0.32% currently (as of 21 Jan) vs a peak of 1.7% prior to acne results and 1.21% prior to dermatitis results
• Trial types: BTX 1801 antimicrobial trial is a Phase 2a clinical trial, whereas acne and dermatitis were both phase 2s (i.e. not split up between 2a and 2b). Aside from safety considerations, phase 2a trials are known to focus on dosing requirements and optimal frequency, while phase 2b trials are known to focus more on the efficacy, which is where dermatitis and acne fell short in terms of meeting their primary endpoints (noting that acne is still progressing to phase 3).

DYOR, this is not investment advice, and GLTAH!

Cheers,

L