BOT - Anything but charting, page-5035

I think your figures are easily achievable. Yes the market is forward looking so $100 million in sales revenue I think will be assumed and it will be up to BOT to not disappoint the market. A PE of 15 is very conservative in the asx biotech space. PE of 50 is more likely.

$100 million is revenue potential compared to Kaken numbers for first year of sales. However there will be cost of manufacture, marketing, shipping etc…this is the big unknown so say earnings are 25% = $20 million/ 1.3 billion x 50 = 80 c
Say earnings in the first year has a 50% margin so $50 million /1.3 billion x 50 = $1.92

Food for thought.

All other products rosacea , acne and anti-biotic if pass phase 3 and get approval would have at least this earnings potential likely much more as HH is only the 4th biggest dermatological market. So exclude antibiotic as biggest long shot and you still have 3x $1.92 = $5.76 SP so I think an offer from BP needs to be pretty enticing. Admittedly to do this in house will require a lot more credit raises and dilution to share price in the future. Hence a buyout would always be more attractive.