BOT 16.9% 38.0¢ botanix pharmaceuticals ltd

BOT - Anything but charting, page-7073

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    I don't want to be a negative nancy @Lev20 - I admire your optimism, I really do, and I want BOT to be at $5 too, but 3 things I think are worth remembering to keep it real at this point:

    1. It took Kaken more than 3 years to get to this point, and without much competition from Qbrexza who have only recently started selling in Japan. We have a bigger mountain to climb in the US and whilst I am confident BOT will get there, we won't be getting even 150k subscriptions this year, so hard to imagine $5.

    2. Whilst the US population is 3x that of Japan, the cost of living US vs Japan is only about 2x (i.e. double). In Japan Ecclock sells for $50, but we want it sold in the US for +10x that for $540. That is a huge differential compared to Japan, so I expect some restrictions on those grounds.

    3. Dollars for developing the BOT pipeline are at least a couple of years away. Maybe the company will take out some debt or raise some more capital, but that all eats into its value as well.

    Personally, I'll be happy with anything above 30c after FDA approval, and +50c after the first sales figures show excellent take-up and scope for growth. But I do think multiple dollars are some years off (although I do expect BOT to go that way).

    I think at best we can hope that some BP decides it can see way ahead and sees the value in paying at least $1 for Sofdra before end of year. I pray we don't sell for anything under $3 because I think the pipeline has too much to offer, but those results are years away yet. Whether BP are hungry enough for Sofdra that they are prepared to pay a premium with the pipeline included, remains to be seen. But no Sofdra, no pipeline in my book - we simply won't have the funds.

    Anyway, I truly hope in my ignorance that I am utterly wrong and we see offers this year of multiple $$$.
 
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