As someone who is thinking of investing , my reasons for waiting...

As someone who is thinking of investing , my reasons for waiting are:

1) I think FDA approval is partially factored in already.

2) The prescription price needs to be cemented in stone. It's not going to be $500. As I previously posted, a prescribing physician friend of mine had a look and similar meds were around the $30 - $40 range.

That makes one heck of a difference in revenue. The price needs to be confirmed by the company and insurers.

3) I think a lot of people are waiting for the first sales figures. There's talk of Tik-Tok vids (USA to ban TikTok?), celeb endorsement etc (who?) and a big marketing campaign.
That costs money. A lot of money. I'm certainly waiting to see if a JV will be announced, and if so, the terms of that.

That's me - basically, a lot of hugely important parts of the financial equation are still very fluid, so until then, I can't pull the trigger, as I can't set an entry point I'm comfortable with.

A prescription price of $40 with a JV with CVS or Walgreens at a 30 / 70 split to Botanix make my entry point a lot higher than a prescription price of $20 with a 50/50 split with Healthmart.

I think the price will peak in the run up to FDA approval confirmation, and then pull back to around the 20c mark whilst awaiting the clarification of price, any Joint Venture, and the initial 3 months sales figures.

Get a good prescription price, a good JV for marketing and sales (Botanix simply don't have the moolah for a USA wide campaign - has to be a JV) - and get say 1.5 - 2% of market in the first 3 months - then expect $1+ easily.

A bad first 3 months - say 0.3 - 0.5% then any big re-rate will bump over to the 6 month figures.


I must say, I'm genuinely surprised that a JV hasn't been spoken about much more widely - it's a given that a company with only $17,000,000 AUD in funds will 100% need a marketing and sales partner.

It's a question of who, and how much will it cost the company.

I'd also venture to say that's why there hasn't been a rerate as big as some are hoping.

This info should become clear (and set in stone) in the next 6 months prior to product launch - which there still isn't a date for as yet I believe?

Cheers all.