As at 1 Jul 2024 and with a 11.0% discount rate, that is my view...

As at 1 Jul 2024 and with a 11.0% discount rate, that is my view on fair value, yes. Whether the market realises that is another question. As you'd know Keynes once said, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. That's why I'm fully equity invested and expect a hold period of 3-5 years.

I think it will take >1 year of proven sales to start to materially converge the two. I think there's 6 key factors dragging it right now:

1. BOT is a relatively new company with no revenue generating assets to date (founded 2016). As a result, Management's sales/operational skill is largely unproven (however I think their history de-risks this materially)
2. The market remembers the 2019 Phase 2 acne result - this was BOT's first material attempt at success
3. There's a lack of institutional capital on the ASX with the risk tolerance and/or skill set for pre-revenue pharma. Mining/O&G gets most of the love
4. Insto investors that do exist want visibility on cashflows. BOT has not yet gotten the green light from the FDA
5. The current market environment is subdued, notably due to the recent and dramatic rise in base rates and geopolitics, ultimately resulting in an uncertain outlook. Many have capital on the sidelines or are invested in lower risk/safe haven assets. This (base rates) should improve over the next couple of years
6. Perhaps there is some lingering misperception that BOT is a pot stock re CBD. That era came and went

But that's alright, this presents me opportunity.