Yep absolutely. I’ve assumed a starting TAM of 3.7M, which grows...

Yep absolutely. I’ve assumed a starting TAM of 3.7M, which grows at c.6% p.a. to max 10.0M, which I think is fair considering the total hyperhidrosis market is 16.1M per the commercial DD. This is roughly equivalent to:

1. Group 1: 3.7M TAM with nil growth. Max 5.0% penetration achieved in Year 5

   
   

2. Group 2: 6.3M TAM with nil growth. Max 2.0% penetration achieved in Year 10

Annual prescriptions is TAM x penetration (implied patients treated), multiplied by 12, multiplied by an 80% compliance to dose factor. First year prescriptions is in line with Kaken’s first year (adjusted for the US population) for both cases above (which is only c.10k patients (pre-compliance) – the International Hyperhidrosis Society is going to email their subscriber base of c.50k individuals on Day 1 - I don't think many people sign up to this for fun Sunday reading).

Note that the E&P model’s forecast period is conservatively only 6 years. A typical patent is valid for 20 years from the date of filing, which my model reflects (see Google Patents for further disclosed info). I also note that my revenue growth profile broadly tracks to the E&P profile, so our difference is the starting base (Year 1 sales). Again, mine is per Kaken grossed up for the US. My EBITDA margin is more conservative (55% vs. c.70%). This provides another data point that my extrapolation of the forecast period and valuation is reasonable.

Euroz assume max 1.0% penetration. I think a sales guy whose total rem is heavily skewed towards short term performance is going to wake up in the morning, knowing they have a best in class product, and shoot for higher than that. Never underestimate the animal spirit. Note that no broker can credibly publish a 10 bag. However, both brokers are personally invested if you refer to the disclosures.

Also my account posting frequency seems to be limited, will reply to other questions when available.

Lastly, consider that all of my posts are for informational purposes only and is not intended to be personal financial advice. There's an inherent risk involved with financial decisions.