A few thoughts on M&A:
Re disclosure, in short, anything is possible (obviously within the bounds of listing rules and law). An offer could be sitting conditional on approval, or not - incomplete proposals/negotiations, subject to confidentiality, generally do not require immediate disclosure. The stock would be halted (by request or ASX action) to prevent a disorderly market, under a leak, or perhaps pending an announcement to allow time to prepare the announcement/materials. I think Management have had a long time to draft up announcements, just look at the craft that went into the commercial webinar deck, they aren't sitting on their hands - however approval/events could drop unexpectedly.
Re an acquisition, unless the price was an attractive trade off in terms of risk/value (i.e. the best interest of shareholders), I'd be letting the approval announcement come out and the share price to likely run (i.e. market and fundamental value to converge) first. No buyer director would approve submitting an offer at 10x the market price (generally the highest cited is Vodafone-Mannesmann in 2000 at a c.130% premium to the undisturbed share price). A sale process, exclusivity, due diligence and others maybe to follow. Competitive tension should be generated. The West article is probably positioning for such.
It's probably a more difficult time for Management if they received an offer now (obviously subject to the terms). As mentioned above, fair value is heavily dependent on operational performance. Do they take a certain, say 50c to one dollar, nearer term deal or back themselves and the product to perform? As we've seen, things can come from left field (acne and FDA CRL) - these are risks we take on, but none have yet been fatal, Management have handled it. I think history shows they're believers, who can evidently back it up with execution.
Relatively, as Management start to prove sales and an opportunistic trade falls further out of reach, the likelihood of a full bidder stepping in who could ascribe value to items, such as synergies and developing the pipeline, increases. A few things we do know for certain - the buyer market is deep, cashed up and looking for strong commercial innovative products.
In Vinnie and Howie we trust.
Expand
(20min delay)