They will, as always, update their valuation in 5 months..
logic is simple and still conservative:
1. Japan sold 350 000 scripts in year 4
2. In US we have 3 x market size > we should get to 350 000 scripts at least 2 times faster>> meaning year 2
3. Japan does not have re-fill program vs US. In US we can keep customer data for 12 months and mail re-fills automatically..this should give us at least 3x uplift ( e.g. 3 scripts per person per year)
in summary we should see at least 200 000( 3 refills per year) prescribtions sold in first 12 months or getting 0.6% market share in Year 1 or net Revenue usd min 104mln...
I would even double this and still find arguments why it is conservative..
It will not take us 10 years to get to 1% market share...
More like in next 12 months..
BOT - Anything but charting, page-9222
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