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25/07/24

23:37

Post #: 74922860
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Originally posted by Grainofsand: ↑

First point I'd make is that Qbrexza is about 1/2 as efficient as Sofdra (going by the clinical studies), and the studies did point to more side effects from Qbrexza. Then there's the ease of application and ordering/supply differences - BOT's basically a roll-on underarmy, and their unique telehealth model will make sales much more streamlined. BOT are also making it clear that Sofdra is the first new chemical entity ever approved by the FDA for PAH.

Clearly, big things are expected, particularly if you look at the last Euroz Hartley price point (47c, up to 76c) or the Evans & Partners analyst note (55c, possibly $1.75).

So with those points made - Qbrexza made about $25m for Journey last year. Their most recent quarterly (Jan to Mar) indicates $5m for Q1, which is about a 23% increase for the same quarter the year before.

Curiously, in their Annual Report, Journey have said there was a market total of only 450,000 prescriptions in 2023 (ALL scripts for PAH, not just Qbrexza).

If you ask me, the market is waiting to see if BOT can deliver as big as what it indicates it can, based on Japanese sales. To be fair, the market has forgotten all about the other drugs lying in wait (acne, rosacea, and anti-microbial) and is probably just considering Sofdra value alone, but nonetheless, it remains to be seen just how much Sofdra BOT ends up moving. Certainly having $70m in the kitty to set up, promote and distribute Sofdra, should make a huge difference.

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Thanks Grainofsand. I agree with your point. The market is waiting and watching with Pharma playing a very long game.

I found it interesting Qbrexza is a multi location use vs Sofdra underarms only. I didn't think much of it until reading patient stories in the reddit with every 3rd or 4th comment about sweaty palms, forehead or feet. It will be interesting to see if this hinders the Sofdra marketshare or BOT can expands its offering outside of underarms to target this in the years to come.

BOT Price at posting: 37.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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