I don't think there is any credible risk of this 'blowing up',...

I don't think there is any credible risk of this 'blowing up', and I'm not just saying that because I want BOT to succeed.

Worst case scenario is they don't get the sales anticipated and the SP adjusts to the actual level of sales. But with $70m behind them, I'm pretty sure their launch and ongoing sales are going to look pretty good. All in all I think you can now regard BOT as a mid-cap biotech and no longer a speccy, which is going to be making a tidy profit very soon, and the upside could be that the profit is very significant (going by Japan's figures) and the SP really gets up there.

Another counter to that risk is really, all they need is a bit of profit from sales so that they can embark on developing their pipeline of other drugs (acne, rosacea, anti-microbial, & doggy derma maybe), and/or buy into another opportunity. But of course a large profit from a high number of sales, will be very much appreciated.

The risks of sales compared to Japan are maybe that US citizens don't care as much about PAH as much as the Japanese. Is that a credible risk? I find it hard to imagine, particularly with over 3m people being recorded as already in attendance at US Dermatologist clinics seeking help. It's just that the help around at the moment isn't very good (basically Qbrexza wipes or Botox) - so you'd think there is a decent opportunity for Sofdra to stand out here. And any significant side-effects from using Sofdra have been next to dismissed in the patient studies.

So in short, I think the only real risk is that sales are not as big as hoped for, yet the company still turns a handsome profit whilst it develops/takes on new products to add to its portfolio.